THE NOT QUITE TOP 5 LEAGUES
This is an analysis thread on VFL Bochum 1848 and how they can look to replace their ageing wide men.
Link to Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/JacksonHuxley/status/1252582865260380160?s=20
The Process
I’ll be zooming in on the vital Bochum wingers, Zoller and Blum, as at ages 28 & 29 respectively, they may soon be nearing the end of their careers. Bochum do have Pantovic and Osei-Tutu, but with the latter returning to Arsenal, Bochum could be left thin out wide.
The first steps are to see where the current VFL Bochum wingers fall amongst other wingers in ‘the not quite top 5 leagues'. Here (below) we look at where they lie within two vital phases of play, creation & attack.
The Main Men
The next step in the process was to filter out each player that didn’t meet the output criteria in each phase. Also filtered out were any players aged 25+. I then clustered the remaining players into four groups, revealing players that are similar to Zoller and Blum (below).
Key Metrics
This graph (below) zooms in on the key metrics in the two primary phases. Blum has the most xG+xAper90 from this group of players. The players that create a similar number and favour the same foot are Insigne of Benevento & Harrison of Leeds. Zoller creates 0.36 xG+xAper90.
The Strengths
Zoller and Blum both have strengths that the team rely on, and new signings would need to replace these strengths. These graphs (below) highlight players that have similar attributes to both Bochum wingers. Ligue 1 offers up two similar wingers, in Pintor, 19 (for Zoller) & Maziz, 21 (for Blum).
The Select Few
The final process in the analysis, is to find three players that could potentially replace Zoller and Blum. Based on key skills, similarities and level of contribution, these 6 players have been selected as my future Bochum players. Up first, Zoller successors...
Dani Raba
Huesca (La Liga 2)
24
2mill
A creative left footer on loan from Villarreal. A physically gifted player, aggressive in attack. Raba is a standout player in construction and fits the bill to slot into the Bochum system.
Roberto Insigne
Benevento (SerieB)
25
1mill
Insigne is a right winger that likes to drift inside. He takes a high volume of shots and has 0.35 non-pen goals per90. Very creative around the box and although a slightly different style, his output is similar to that of Zoller.
Vagner
Nancy (Ligue 2)
24
2mill
Vagner would be my top choice to replace Zoller. The versatile right footer returns to St Étienne in the summer. An athletic and creative flair player that generates 0.35xG per90! A perfect fit.
On to Blum successors.
Youssef Maziz
Le Mans
21
800k
Maziz was only just included in the criteria as he has played just 800mins this season. He generates 0.29xG p90, from lots of shots. Very creative player in both volume & quality. Maziz returns to Metz in the summer.
Stephane Diarra
21
900k
Diarra, also of Le Mans, typically plays on the right. His contract is up in the summer, and is definitely worth a punt for any club. An extremely good dribbler and pacey too. Good with both feet and looks an intelligent player!
Jack Harrison
Leeds United (C’ship)
23
6mill
Although the most expensive, Harrison, on loan from Man City, is the best option to step in for Blum imo. He has excellent technical ability, intelligence and he is very dangerous around the box with through balls & key passes.
THE NOT QUITE TOP 5 LEAGUES
Each of the six players have great quality and there was a lot of overlap across Zoller and Blum’s potential successors in my analysis. The right pairing could be lethal.
I hope this more applied example shows how analysis could be used to create a long term structure in clubs and how this can assist in identifying targets.
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